Patent Application Number: 2006201792
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Discussion (2)
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Jason Leong (about 1 year ago)
This application relates to monitoring and updating predictive models (a model used to make predictions) of an asset (for example, a boiler, turbine, or engine). Multiple models are used together with an optimisation algorithm in order to find the Pareto Frontier (simply described, the optimal results of conflicting objectives. For example, in Fig. 2, the Pareto Frontier is the points on the graph that make up the optimal results of the Heat Rate vs. NOx). The user or the system can then select a point on the Frontier, and the appropriate inputs and outputs used to predict that point are transmitted to the operator of the asset (presumably so that the operator can manipulate the asset in order to reach the optimal result selected).

The application provides specific details on the method and system involved in order to create the predictive models from historical operational data (Fig. 3), use multiple models to find the Pareto Frontier and the optimised results (Fig. 8), and update the models using new data (Fig. 9).

Claims 1-5 describe the entire method. Claims 6-10 describe a system that implements the method described in claims 1-5.
Jason Leong (about 1 year ago)
Claims 1-5 generally describe the following:
1. Method for performing multi-objective predictive modelling, monitoring and update for an asset:
Step 1: Determine the status of all the predictive models for an asset (there are at least two models). Each model uses one or more of the following statuses:
• Acceptable performance values (see claim 2)
• Validating model (see claim 3)
• Unacceptable performance values
Step 2: Based upon the status of each model, do one or more of the following:
• Stop using the model
• Generate an alert on the status of the model
• Update the model (see claim 4)

2. “Acceptable performance values” = where predicted performance values coincide with actual performance values

3. “Validating model status” = validation process is ongoing for the model

4. Updating = providing a new data set, performing prediction, calculating error, creating a training data set from all the data, update each model using the training data set, and deleting the new data set.

5. If error exceeds specified threshold, perform incremental learning of each model